https://ir.nilds.gov.ng//handle/123456789/32 2026-04-29T09:59:22Z https://ir.nilds.gov.ng//handle/123456789/1791 CPI Rebasing: Finding Plausible Reasons for Decrease in Inflation from 34.8% to 24.5% Osigwe, Augustine; Muhammad, Murtala Adam Price level is a crucial macroeconomic variable that significantly influences household, firm, and government objectives. Monitoring the movement of prices within the economy is essential for effective fiscal and monetary policy formulation. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes in the general price level of household-consumed goods and services compared to a base year, set at an index value of 100. Following, the rebasing of CPI, Nigeria’s inflation rate dropped from 34.80% in December 2024 to 24.48% in January, 2025. While rebasing enhances economic assessments, it does not necessarily reflect the true standard of living of the people. It is on this premise that this brief examined the recent rebasing of the Nigeria’s CPI with a view to providing empirical basis for legislative interventions. In this regard, the brief put forward the following punchy recommendations for the consideration of the 10th National Assembly; The National Assembly (NASS) may wish to adhere to the United Nations Statistical Commission which suggest that countries should rebase, every five years to ensure that their economic indicators remain in line with changing global economic conditions and internal structural shifts. Relevant committee of NASS may wish to engage the NBS to ascertain the conceivable reason(s) for shrinking the weight of food and non-alcoholic beverages by 22.8% in the new CPI computation using 2024 as base year. The brief notes that food and non-alcoholic beverages are obviously household items that gup a reasonable proportion of people’s income. NASS is further advised to be concerned with the drop in the weight assigned to Clothing & Footwear, House, Water, Electricity, Gas and Other fuels in the new CPI. The reason for this, is that the aforementioned items are fundamental human needs and as such shrinking their weight in the CPI basket might be sending a wrong signal that might not reflect the reality of Nigerians economy condition. The brief commends the NBS for scaling up the weights of education services by 58.9%, health by 103.3%, restaurant & accommodation services by 975.0% and transport by 64.6%. The authors are of the view that this skilling up is in line with the present economic condition in the country. The new weights of these items will go a long way in showcasing the true state of inflation in the Nigeria’s economy. Given that the new CPI confirms that housing, transport, and healthcare costs are the major inflation drivers, NASS may wish to pass a resolution urging the executive to introduce subsidies or price control measures in these critical sectors to alleviate economic burdens on citizens. The NASS is by this brief advised not to be misled by the drop-in inflation rate given that this is not as a result of a fall in the prices of goods and services, but rather as a result of the change in method of calculation of the CPI. The basket of goods and services used to track inflation was updated and some items now carry different weights. The NASS may wish to support food security programs aimed at mitigating rising food inflation in the country. Implementing the recommendations outlined in this brief will enhance economic planning and policy effectiveness. 2025-02-01T00:00:00Z https://ir.nilds.gov.ng//handle/123456789/1790 Rebasing Macroeconomic Variables: Of What Essence? Osigwe, Augustine; Ezechi, Ibe; Sada, Maryam Musa; Muhammad, Murtala Adam This issue brief considered the essence of rebasing some macroeconomic variables to examine the rationale for such exercise. The brief simply defines rebasing as replacing an outdated base year with a more recent one to reflect the current structure and dynamics of the economy. It was observed that Nigeria’s less frequent rebasing compared to countries like Kenya and South Africa could limit its ability to capture the full scope of its economic changes, particularly in a rapidly evolving global market. This observation emerged from a rigorous cross country review on GDP rebasing. The brief distills out lessons for Nigeria before documenting the following areas for legislative intervention/concern; This issue brief draws the attention of the National Assembly (NASS) committees oversighting the MDA responsible for economic management in Nigeria on the need to understand the importance of rebasing in achieving effective distribution of resources, targeting high-growth industries, and closing economic gaps/disparities. The NASS may wish to pass a resolution advising the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) to heed the submission of the United Nations Statistical Commission which suggests that Nigeria should rebase its economy, every five years to ensure that the country’s economic indicators remain in line with changing global economic conditions and internal structural shifts. This brief further highlights the fact that the practice of regular rebasing helps provide more timely and relevant data for evidence based economic legislations, policymaking and investment decisions, giving a clearer picture of economic growth, sectoral shifts, and inflation trends. The regularity of rebasing also impacts a country’s fiscal policy and decision-making. In countries like South Africa, the frequent updates allow the government to adjust its fiscal policies based on more accurate data, improving public sector planning, budgeting, and debt management. The NASS is by this brief advised not to be misled by the bloated new size of the GDP all the times Nigeria rebased. It has been demonstrated in this brief that in most instances, the seemingly big sizes of macroeconomic activities are driven mainly by the rate of inflation in the current base year rather than an indication of the economic wellbeing of the people. In other words, GDP is not the best indicator for measuring the standard of living of the people, thus the NASS while oversighting the performance of the executive may look beyond the size of the GDP. The NASS is further briefed that rebasing has implications for investment decisions, as foreign investors often view a country’s GDP as a measure of market potential. Received evidence from Kenya and South Africa’s frequent rebasing indicates that it helps to maintain a more stable and consistent economic image as well as boosts investor confidence. 2025-02-01T00:00:00Z https://ir.nilds.gov.ng//handle/123456789/1789 The proposed 2024 Tax reform bill and the Rising Economic Pressures on the Survival of Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs) in Nigeria: A Need for Legislative intervention Ibrahim, Yusuf The current proposed 2024 tax bill has planned on raising the Value Added Tax (VAT) from 7.5% to 10% in 2025. This increase is projected to adversely affect the growth and performance of an already weak Small and Medium Enterprises (SMEs). While existing policy reforms in the energy sector and exchange rate has already weaken the productive capacity of the SMEs, raising the VAT could potentially further increase cost of raw material for the SMEs by 33.3%. prices of output will equally be affected by almost the same proportion, thereby weakening both production and sales. Therefore, the likelihood of closure and bankruptcy will rise. SMEs indebted through commercial banks loans willdefault, the default may likely affect the banking sector as well. This brief calls for legislative intervention to assist in mitigating the impending negative effect of the rising cost of undertaking business in the country by shielding the SMEs from an additional layer policy reform that could be detrimental for their survival. Key Oversight Priorities for Consideration: The National Assembly may consider amending the tax bill by inserting clauses on SMEs tax waivers, tax exemption to low performing SMEs. The National Assemble may wish to carry oversight on Small and Medium Enterprise Development Agency of Nigeria to ensure financial support to underperforming SMEs. Conclusion: Despite the dire economic situation in Nigeria, robust legislative oversight with targeted agency-specific interventions, and active engagement with stakeholders, can provide critical support for SMEs, ensuring that these enterprises continue to play their essential role in promoting stability, security, and prosperity across Nigeria. Without doubt, addressing these issues is essential to alleviate the economic hardships faced by Nigerians, uphold national priorities, and drive sustainable growth in the SME sector. 2024-11-01T00:00:00Z https://ir.nilds.gov.ng//handle/123456789/1787 Insecurity and Anambra State Gubernatorial Election: Areas for Legislative Intervention Ezenwajiobi, Chidinma Charity; Sada, Maryam Musa Violence in Anambra state has significantly increased in recent years, threatening the state's democratic process through kidnappings, armed robberies, and politically motivated attacks. The governorship election of Anambra State is slated for November 8, 2025, by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with party primaries scheduled for March 2025. Voter turnout, candidate involvement, and the electoral process's general integrity are all seriously threatened by insecurity, despite the fact that the election is essential to the state's future governance. Every day, residents especially investors are abducted and slain. The situation has deteriorated to a point where citizens were afraid to travel or are forced to take precautions, such as disguising their identities for safety, people were scared to return home to celebrate Christmas. In a decisive move to address the growing security concerns in the state, the Anambra State Executive Council (ANSEC) held its 33rd meeting on October 29, 2024, and resolved to confront the issues head-on. Despite these measures, insecurity in Anambra state has become increasingly dire. There has been a series of kidnappings and deaths as a result of insecurity in Anambra state. On 12th January, 2025 a female banker, identified simply as Ifeoma Onyekwelu, was reportedly been killed by suspected kidnappers in Anambra State, despite her family paying a ransom for her release. Just a few days after Anambra State Governor Prof. Charles Soludo established the Agụnechemba security group (also called Operation Udo Ga-Achị) to combat state insecurity, on Tuesday, January 21, 2025, gunmen abducted Dr. Cornelius Onuigbo, a urologist from the Nnamdi Azikiwe University Teaching Hospital (NAUTH), Nnewi. To address the worsening insecurity in Anambra State and check voter participation in the 2025 gubernatorial election, the following recommendations are proffered: The Senate and House Committee on National Security and Intelligence, the Senate and House Committee on Defence, and the Senate and House Committee on Electoral Matters through its legislative oversight may wish to hold a committee hearing (public/investigative) with the Anambra State Government and the Independent Electoral Commission on the need to proffer a lasting solution on the rising insecurity in Anambra state. This will help curb the menace and ensure a peaceful and successful governorship election in Anambra State come November 2025. 2025-01-01T00:00:00Z