It’s Just 16, Not 60: Explaining the Rise and Fall of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) in Nigeria

Abstract

This paper interrogates the rise and fall of the PDP as a once political hegemon in Nigerian politics under the fourth republic. This is done against the backdrop of the party’s exaggerated prophecy of a 60-year uninterruptible hold onto power, which ended abruptly after just 16 years (1999–2015). Specifically, we examine the factors that precipitated the failure of these projections and the eventual fall of the party in Nigeria. Drawing data from secondary sources, we demonstrate how PDP ’s hegemony was (mis)managed between 1999 and 2015 when its electoral fortunes fatally crumbled. We highlight critical explanatory factors such as the poor performance of the party in the provision of public goods; leadership crisis and instability culminating in incessant change; intra party conflicts and attendant mass defection; the merger of opposition parties to form the All Progressive Party ( APC ) in 2015; and a series of electoral reforms that brought about marked improvement in electoral administration and electoral integrity.