Review of the 2026 Appropriation Bill of the Federal Government of Nigeria (Executive Summary)

Abstract

The 2026 Appropriation Bill, titled the “Budget of Consolidation, Renewed Resilience and Shared Prosperity,” is designed to consolidate the far-reaching economic and structural reforms initiated since 2023. It aligns with the administration’s current policy priorities, focusing on national security, economic recovery, education, health, agriculture, infrastructure, power and energy, women and youth empowerment, and social safety nets. A central feature of the budget proposal is the “Renewed Hope Ward Development Plan” which seeks to localize development interventions and deliver tangible benefits at the ward level across the country. This report provides a critically evidence-based assesses of the 2026 budget proposal, examining its feasibility, macroeconomic assumptions, and capacity to deliver on key government priorities while addressing Nigeria’s pressing socio-economic challenges. The analysis recognizes that global economic conditions will significantly influence the performance of the 2026 budget. According to the IMF, the global economy is projected to grow by 3.1% in 2026, despite persistent concerns over trade tensions, geopolitical fragmentation, and policy uncertainties. Growth is expected to be driven largely by emerging and developing economies (4.0%), compared to 1.6% in advanced economies. Within this context, Nigeria’s economy is projected to grow by 4.4%, supported by anticipated improvements in oil production, strengthened investor confidence, and the continued impact of domestic macroeconomic and structural reforms. The domestic outlook for 2026 is shaped by ongoing reforms in the foreign exchange market, tax administration, and public financial management, alongside improvements in infrastructure, rising domestic demand, industrial recovery, expansion in private sector credit, and enhanced security conditions. These factors collectively underpin the assumptions and projections upon which the 2026 budget is anchored.