Appraisal of the performance of the Economic Recovery and Growth Plan (ERGP): How far so far?

Yinusa, Olumuyiwa Ganiyu (2018-05)

Research Issue Brief

There is evident work in progress to ensure that the ERGP succeeds. Positive results are already manifesting in key economic indices such as real GDP growth year on year, growth in foreign reserves, and downward trend in inflation, increased capital importation and narrowing foreign exchange gap. • However, at year ended 2017, GDP was at 1.92% growth rate, Nigeria ranked 145 in world bank’s ease of doing business and power generation is hovering somewhere between 4,000 and 5,000 MW as against targeted metrics of 7% GDP growth rate, ranking at 100 for ease of doing business and a 10,000 MW electricity generation by 2020. • Consequently, the ERGP implementation team still has challenges to deal with. These include funding, budget implementation, security challenges (specifically in the North-East and North-Central), fluctuation in global oil prices and increasing use of alternative sources of energy (e.g., shale oil). • The key drivers of any economic plan especially the ERGP are oil prices & production volumes, political stability and macroeconomic policies. The implementation team must continually guard these key drivers within the next two years as these will impact the achievement of the plan’s objective. • Government at the State and Local Government levels through the National Economic Committee should be involved to drive an all-inclusive implementation of the Plan. While some of the target metrics appear overly ambitious, overall the ERGP appears to be on course and remains quite robust and achievable. • This is however subject to constant evaluation and assessment at fora where questions such as how a 7% growth can be achieved when capital expenditure is projected at 30% per the plan. As these questions are asked, attention also needs to be paid to ensuring that these recovery plan translates into not just growth but development so that these gains are felt by the citizenry.