| dc.description.abstract | Nigeria's democratic experience since the return to constitutional rule in 1999 has been characterised by uninterrupted electoral transitions, expanding political competition, and the continuing evolution of a multi-party system. As the country approaches the 2027 General Elections, political realignments, coalition building, party defections, and strategic alliances have intensified, raising important questions about the future of democratic governance and electoral competition.
This paper examines Nigeria's political transition towards the 2027 General Elections within the broader context of the country's multi-party democracy. Drawing on historical analysis and established theories of political parties and party systems, the study explores the evolution of coalition politics, mergers, alliances, defections, elite consensus, and party realignments from the First Republic to the present democratic dispensation. It further analyses the changing strengths and weaknesses of both the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) and the opposition political parties in the context of the emerging electoral contest.
The paper argues that concerns about Nigeria drifting towards a one-party state should be understood within the broader context of the history of multi-party democracy in Nigeria. Historically, Nigeria’s multi-party democracy tends to move towards a one dominant party system rather than a one party state. This paper contends that the relative dominance of a ruling party has often been influenced not only by its political strategies alone, but also by the internal fragmentation, leadership challenges, ideological inconsistencies, and organisational weaknesses of the opposition. Historical experience demonstrates that successful political transitions in Nigeria have generally depended on broad based political coalitions, strategic elite consensus, and effective national mobilisation.
The study concludes that the credibility of Nigeria's 2027 political transition will depend not merely on electoral outcomes but on the collective commitment of political parties, the electoral institutions, security agencies, civil society organisations, the media, and citizens to democratic principles, constitutionalism, peaceful political competition, and credible elections. It is hoped that the analysis and recommendations presented in this paper will contribute further to scholarly discourse, informed public debate, and policy initiatives aimed at strengthening democratic governance and democratic consolidation in Nigeria. | en_US |
